Understanding High-Risk Events

Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity

We aim to identify risks from low-probability, high-impact possibilities with global-scale ramifications. What is known about their occurrence probabilities and consequences, and what significant scientific gaps exist? This theme will seek to identify any unexpected risks (cf. ozone hole resulting from heterogeneous chemistry) and to better incorporate known risks into projection ensembles. Risks that we will consider will include large natural carbon release, ice shelf/sheet collapse, regime shift of ocean/atmosphere circulation, extreme cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, the multiplicative effect of compound hazards, biome (e.g., Amazon) collapse, “Fireball Earth,” and large-scale extremes that challenge adaptation such as large-scale desertification, land, and marine heatwaves or storm sequences that exceed physiological limits or otherwise render large regions effectively uninhabitable.

We will identify adaptation limits for human, land, and ocean ecosystems and resources, worst case (extreme/existential) scenarios, and global-scale tipping elements and points. We will also examine how (or if) tail risks could be avoided – or caused – by general or specific climate mitigation efforts, including negative emissions (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)) or geoengineering / Solar Radiation Management (SRM). This activity will be informed by the results from the carbon cycle, water, and sea level themes.

Outcomes:

• Sufficient understanding of the physical processes underlying tipping points and high-impact events to reliably quantify risks
• Earth System Models that can credibly incorporate tail risks, compound extremes, uncertain shocks, and tipping elements including those arising from feedbacks between multiple components of the Earth system
• Strategies to accurately and transparently incorporate low probability/high impact possibilities into projections, risk analysis, and adaptation planning. We anticipate collaboration with the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project and others for expertise on scenarios and planning.

Working Group:

Contact: Narelle van der Wel - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Affiliate Members:

Last Updated: 17 July 2024