Agenda

Week 1

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

09h00-09h45

What is an extreme event?
D. Karoly

 

Extreme Value Theory (multi-variate)
P. Naveau

Detection and attribution (General introduction)
F. Zwiers

Physical mechanisms (Large-scale circulation)
D. Karoly

Prediction - seasonal prediction systems
A. Kumar

09h45-10h30

How do extremes changes in the context of climate change?
S. Seneviratne

Extreme Value Theory (non-startionarity)
P. Naveau

Detection and attribution (Optimized & non-optimized methods)
F. Zwiers

Physical mechanisms (Large-scale circulation)
D. Karoly

Prediction - Predictabiity, and extremes
F. Doblas-Reyes

Coffee break

11h00-12h30

Statistical Theory (EVT1)
E. Gilleland

Introduction to R & NCAR extreme package
E. Gilleland

Practical exercise with R: Optimal fingerprinting
F. Zwiers/Q.Wen

Climate extremes: Data issues
L. Alexander

Practical exercise on prediction

 

Sea Forecast practical
A. Kumar, F. Doblas-Reyes, C. Prudhomme

Lunch

14h00-15h30

Statistical Theory (EVT2)
E. Gilleland

Introduction exercices  NCAR extreme package
E. Gilleland

Group projects

Group projects

Group projects

Coffee break

16h00-17h30

Project 1

Project 3: Growing season length

Project 5:
5a) Event attribution with CMIP5 data
5b) How does climate change alter the distribution of weather?

Project 6 : Land surface drivers of droughts: the role of soil moisture persistence

 

Group projects

Group projects

Group projects

Project progress reports (15 min each)

After dinner

Welcome reception

Statistical Theory - Advanced talk
P. Naveau

 

Dinner Outing

 

References:

What is an extreme event?

Climate Modes of Variability Outreach materia

Statistical Theory

Extreme Value Theory

  • Bernard, E., Naveau, P., Vrac, M., and Mestre, O. (2013). Clustering of maxima: Spatial dependencies among heavy rainfall in France. Journal of Climate 26, 7929–7937.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00836.1
  • P. Naveau, A. Toreti, I. Smith and E. Xoplaki.. A fast non-parametric spatio-temporal regression scheme for Pareto distributed heavy precipitation. Water Resources Research. DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015431, 2014.
  • Naveau, P., Guillou, A. and Rietsch, T. (2014), A non-parametric entropy-based approach to detect changes in climate extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology). doi: 10.1111/rssb.12058
  • T. Rietsch, P. Naveau, N. Gilardi and A. Guillou, Network design for heavy rainfall analysis, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020867

Week 2

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

09h00-09h45

Detection and attribution (Extreme values)
F. Zwiers

Physical mechanisms (Land-climate feedbacks)
S. Seneviratne

Event attribution: Theory
P. Stott

Event attribution: Theory
F. Otto

Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Development
K. Koshi

09h45-10h30

Detection and attribution (Extreme values)
F. Zwiers

Physical mechanisms (Local vs large-scale drivers)
S. Seneviratne

Event attribution: Theory
P. Stott

Event attribution: Theory
F. Otto

Final Project wrap up and ongoing collaboration planning

Coffee break

11h00-12h30

Practical exercise with R : D&A Extreme Values
F. Zwiers/Q. Wan

Practical exercise - land-climate interactions and soil moisture memory
R. Orth / S. Seneviratne

Practical exercise with climate prediction.net data Worksheet 1
F. Otto

Practical exercise with climate prediction.net data
Worksheet 2
Worksheet 3
F. Otto

Project presentations (30- minutes each)

Lunch

14h00-15h30

Group projects

Group projects

Group projects

Group projects

Project presentations (30-minutes each)

Coffee break

16h00-17h30

Group projects

Group projects

Group projects

Group projects

Project presentations (30-minutes each)

18h00

 

 

Guest Lecture : Response of hydroclimatic regimes to global warming
F. Giorgi

 

 

After dinner

 

 

 

End of school Dinner

 

References

Detection and attribution

  • Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change, 2010

    Citation: Hegerl, G.C., O. Hoegh-Guldberg, G. Casassa, M.P. Hoerling, R.S. Kovats, C. Parmesan, D.W. Pierce, P.A. Stott, 2010: Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change. In: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., C.B. Field, D. Qin, V. Barros, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley, and K.L. Ebi (eds.)]. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

  • Climate Change Science 2013 Haiku, G. Johnson

Event attribution

  • Allen, Liability for Climate Change, Nature, 2003
  • Stott, Stone, Allen, Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 2004.
  • The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK - briefing report released by the Met Office in February 2014