WGSIP Summary

Day 1 - Monday 4th June 2007

Welcome

- Mr. David Rodriguez - Director of Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya
- Introduction to Workshop and TFSP Exp - B. Kirtman (COLA)

Key-Note Addresses - Chair: B. Kirtman

-Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: Prospects, promises, and challenges, J. Shukla (IGES/COLA)
- Synthesis of Seasonal Prediction Skill, T. Palmer (ECMWF)
- ENSEMBLES: Seamless seasonal-to-decadal forecasting,  P. Doblas Reyes (ECMWF)
- Why should we care about the stratosphere? M. Baldwin (NWRA)
- Validation of Seasonal Forecasts: Statistical Methods and Downscaling,  J. M. Gutierrez (Uni. Cantabria)
- Towards integrating applications within end-to-end seamless ensemble prediction systems - A case for Africa first?, A.. Morse (Uni.Liverpool)

Session I - Synthesis of Seasonal Prediction Skill

Assessment of Seasonal Prediction Skill - Chair: J. Kinter

- More Certain Uncertainty in Seasonal Climate Forecasts, L. Goddard (IRI)
- Predictions of temperature and rainfall anomalies with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System-3, F. Molteni (ECMWF)
- Overview of the APEC Climate Center for Climate Information Services - C.-K. Park (APEC)
- ENSO-related variability in Northeast Asia - An advantageous location for seasonal predictability, T. Ose (MRI-JMA)
- Seasonal forecasting in Canada,  G. Boer (CCCMa)
- IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its Applications, Z. Lin (IAP)
- Recent Development in Ocean-Atmosphere Modelling for Seasonal Prediction in Australia, G. Wang (BMRC)
- Seasonal Prediction Activities at the South African Weather Service, W. Landman (S.African Weather Service)

The Venue

Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya
at the Barcelona World Trade Centre

Sponsors

Day 2 - Tuesday 5th June 2007

Coupled Model Performance - Chair M. Davey

- Impact of ocean initial conditions on seasonal forecasts skill,  M. Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
- Coupled Model Data Assimilation and ENSO Forecasting, A. Rosati (GFDL)
- Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models,  E. Guilyardi (LOCEAN/IPSL & Walker Institute)

Session II - Seasonal Prediction Skill and the Coupled System

Stratospheric Processes and Seasonal Prediction (SPARC) - Chair: M. Baldwin

- The role of the Stratosphere in seasonal prediction: Background and session overview,  A. Charlton (Dept Meteorology, Uni. Reading)
- Downward propagation from the stratosphere: Physical mechanism and potential for seasonal prediction, B. Christiansen (DCC-DMI)
- Predictability of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling during Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events in the Northern Hemisphere, H. Mukogawa (DPRI, Kyoto Uni.)
- Occurrence patterns of stratospheric sudden warming events in view of the stratosphere-troposphere coupled system and their predictability, T. Hirooka (DEPS, Kyushu Uni.)
- Stratosphere-troposphere interaction and plans for the GloSea4 Seasonal Forecast system, A. Scaife (Hadley Centre, UKMO)
- Prospects for wintertime European seasonal prediction,  W. Norton (The Walker Institute; PCE Investors)

Poster Session I & II - SP Skill and the Coupled System

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Seasonal Prediction (GEWEX) - Chair: R. Koster

- GLACE-2: A Study of the Impacts of Land Initialization on Forecast Skill, R. Koster (NASA GSFC)
- Land surface contribution to seasonal climate variability and predictability, H. Douville (Météo-France)
- Seasonal Hydrological Prediction: Activities and progress under GEWEX's Hydrologic Application Project, E. Wood (Princeton Uni.)

Cryospheric Processes and Seasonal Prediction (CLIC) - Chair: J. Christensen

- Seasonal Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice, X. Yuan (LDEO, Columbia Uni.)
- Seasonal Predictability over the Arctic Region and exploring the role of boundary conditions (SPAR), R. Benestad (NMI)
- Verification of hemispheric-wide winter temperature forecasts based on fall snow and atmospheric anomalies, J. Cohen (AER Inc.)