WCRP and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) are jointly organizing the "International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction", to be held in Boulder, USA, on 17-21 September 2018. They will serve as one important step toward ever-increasing collaboration across timescales to address societal needs for seamless and integrated climate predictions.
During the meeting, researchers from communities on both Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction and Seasonal to Decadal Prediction will gather under one roof to advance their respective fields as well as collaborations and synergies.
Events and aims
The conference week will feature the "Second International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)", the "Second International Conference on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction (S2D)" as well as a joint segment between both communities. All three will address trending issues and work towards a more seamless approach across time scales as well as closer linkages between research, operations and services.
A growing need for seamless weather and climate information and services
Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts. Skillful predictions on these timescales are hence a valuable tool for policymakers and an important asset for society. This is reflected by globally growing interest in developing seamless forecasts and their integration in the delivery chain – from predictions to information, services, uptake, and application. Such interest is both transmitted to and taken up by the scientific, operational, and applications communities, all of which will be represented at the 2018 "Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction".
Conference focus areas
The S2S and S2D communities share very similar, if not identical, scientific and technical challenges, including:
- forecast initialization and ensemble generation
- initialization shock and drift
- understanding the onset of model systematic errors
- bias correction, calibration, and skill assessment
- model resolution
- atmosphere-ocean coupling
- linking research, operations, and users.
The conference will also take stock of the outcomes of the recent WMO Operational Climate Prediction (OCP-2) workshop held 30 May – 1 June in Barcelona, Spain.
Conference latest news
Over 400 abstracts have been received, and around 400 participants are expected for this milestone event, which will be the first of its kind in bringing together the communities of weather research, climate research and operational predictions.
The conference organizing committee recently released a tentative conference agenda, which includes keynote presentations, numerous oral sessions in plenary and parallel settings, dedicated poster sessions, as well as several activities for and with Early Career Scientists.
For full details on the 2018 "International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction", see the conference homepage.
Overarching context
The conference ties in with several other activities with WCRP involvement that aim to close existing gaps for seamless prediction, for example:
- The WCRP/WWRP S2S prediction project, which will enter into its Phase II in fall 2018
- Joint research efforts with the scientific community, recently described in a joint article in Nature Partner Journals – Climate and Atmospheric Sciences.
- Standing initiatives of WCRP and its partners, such as:
- the WCRP Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP)
- the WCRP Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP), and
- the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near-Term Climate Prediction.