The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO2 concentration this year. Using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, the authors forecast that the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes. For more see: Betts, R. A. et al. 2016. El Niño and a record CO2 rise, Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate3063.
Figure: Identifying, testing and forecasting the relationship between Niño 3.4 SST anomalies and Mauna Loa CO2 growth rates. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Nature Climate Change, Betts, R. A. et al. 2016, copyright 2016.