Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison (SMIP), Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)

Contact: Ken Sperber

The CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) has intitiated two experimental protocols using atmospheric general circulation models to investigate: (1) potential seasonal predictability (SMIP-2) using observed SST, and (2) actual predictability using forecast SST (SMIP-2/HFP). Modelling groups may participate in either or both protocols. The basic experiment calls for ensembles of integrations, differing only by their initial conditions, for each season for 1979-2000.

References:

  • Results regarding the predictability of the Asian summer monsoon have been published based on a pilot SMIP project:
  • Sperber, K. R., C. Brankovic, M. Deque, C. S. Frederiksen, R. Graham, A. Kitoh, C. Kobayashi, T. N. Palmer, K. Puri, W. Tennent, and E. Volodin, 2001: Dynamical Seasonal Predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2226-2248.