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Workshop Report (February 10, 2010)List of ParticipantsMotivationThe climate of the coming decades on regional and global scales is going to be influenced by both anthropogenic forcing and internal ('natural') processes. There is a large ongoing effort as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) to make projections about the future climate that will account both of these influences. This is done by including information about the current state of the climate system, which can then affect the evolution of the climate over the next several decades. Some success have already been demonstrated in the literature, but there are still open questions about how predictable the climate system truly is on decadal timescales, and how useful decadal predictions may be to society. Recognizing that the prediction efforts are still relatively new, it is timely to begin a discussion of the potential uses of decadal predictions. The goal of the workshop is to bring together people from different communities who have shared interests in predicting the climate of the coming decades. This will include researchers involved in developing prediction systems, understanding mechanisms of decadal and forced climate variability, and assessing the needs of potential users. Discussions will focus on bridging the gap between what is feasible from a technical and scientific perspective and the realities of what kind of information users need. Confirmed speakers are from disciplines ranging from the social sciences to resource managers to physical scientists involved in making predictions. The workshop will consist of keynote lectures from these different disciplines, and then sessions will be structured around particular applications sectors including: water resources, long-term risk management, marine ecosystems, extreme events, coastal processes and public lands. last updated |